It didn’t take long after Penn State claimed the 10th NCAA championship in program history on March 19 for fans to start peeking ahead to the 2022-23 season.
It’s way too early to know what any team’s lineup will look like, but it’s fairly safe to say that Penn State returns enough talent to be considered the favorite to take home another title when the finals wrap on March 18, 2023 at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma
The Nittany Lions’ two closest 2022 challengers — Michigan and Iowa — will be undergoing major rebuilding campaigns. Arizona State or Cornell could move into those slots.
A lot can and probably will happen between now and the start of the season in November, but here’s an educated guess at what the lineup may look like.
125: With a year off to heal and improve, 2021 starter Robbie Howard is the leading candidate to start here. However, Will Betancourt announced late last week that he has transferred to Penn State from Ohio State and intends to compete here.
133: Two-time NCAA champ Roman Bravo-Young had hinted that 2022 would be his last year with Penn State. But before the finals were even done in Little Caesars Arena, RBY tweeted out “Should I do another year?” And in his post-championship press conference he talked about a possible return. If he comes back, obviously the weight is his. If not, perhaps Gary Steen, Baylor Shunk or Brandon Meredith would claim the spot.
141: With two-time champ Nick Lee leaving, this weight figures to be taken over by Beau Bartlett. He wrestled the last two seasons at 149, but 141 seems to be his more natural weight.
149: Blue-chip recruit Shayne Van Ness looks like the leading candidate to take over for Bartlett.
157: This weight is perhaps the biggest mystery of all. Terrell Barraclough and Tony Negron split time here before Brady Berge shifted down. Other possibilities could include Joe Lee, Matt Lee or incoming freshman Levi Haines.
165: This spot should clear out nicely for the debut of another blue-chip recruit, Alex Facundo.
174: Already a two-time champion, Carter Starocci would be an odds-on favorite to win a third.
184: Like Starocci, two-time champion Aaron Brooks will be a favorite to win a third.
197: Defending champion Max Dean has another year of eligibility and is a favorite to repeat.
285: Two-time All-American Greg Kerkvliet will be among the favorites nationally at this weight.
In the 13 years Cael Sanderson has been the head coach in Happy Valley, eight of his nine championships have come in four-year bunches, 2011-14 and 2016-19.
Will 2022 be the start of another cluster? If that’s the case, then the following numbers may be instructive of what’s to come.
Before shifting attention to what lies ahead, let’s take one last look back at some astonishing numbers that Sanderson & Co.’s teams have accumulated in the 12 contested championships the Nittany Lions have wrestled under the current regime.
SANDERSON GAINING ON GABLE
Most wrestling afficionados consider former Iowa head coach Dan Gable to be the best coach in collegiate wrestling history.
Gable coached the Hawkeyes from 1976 to 1997 and compiled a 355-21-5 record in dual meets, won 15 national championships, crowned 45 national champions and 152 All-Americans.
In Gable’s first 12 NCAA tournaments, his teams won nine championships, all in a row from 1978-86, claimed 86 All-Americans and 25 national champions.
In Sanderson’s first 12 NCAA tournaments, his teams won nine championships, claimed 70 All-Americans and 32 national champions.
Gable’s teams were known for winning in the quarterfinals, and his first 12 teams combined for a 70-18 (.795 winning percentage) record in that round. They were 50-20 (.714) in the semifinals and 25-25 (.500) in the finals.
Sanderson’s teams are known for being nearly unbeatable in the semifinals and finals. Over 12 years, the Nittany Lions are 46-6 (.885) in the semifinals (30-2 since 2015) and 32-14 (.696) in the finals.
Since 2017, Penn State is 21-3 overall in the finals and has won 11 finals matches in a row, dating back to Mark Hall’s loss to Arizona State’s Zahid Valencia in the 2019 174-pound final.
Sanderson is on pace to climb to the top of a very exclusive list. His nine national championships places him third on the all-time list, behind Oklahoma State’s Edward Gallagher (11) and Gable (15).
Here are some other fun facts from this year’s championships:
• Penn State and Iowa are currently 1-2 in total All-Americans since 2010, with 70 and 69, respectively;
• Penn State’s 32 champions over a span of 12 years not only equals the total of its three closest competitors in that time, but requires double that time for any team to match. Iowa’s tally reaches 32 only if you go back to 1998 (the Hawkeyes have had 33 since then);
• PSU’s 32 champs since 2010 are more than any team has had since 2000;
• In those 12 championships, Penn State has had five finalists seven times;
• With its 10th title in program history, Penn State became the third school to reach double digits. It has a long way to go to catch second-place Iowa (24) and first-place Oklahoma State (34);
• Penn State has crowned at least one national champion in each of the last 11 tournaments. Minnesota is the only other school that has a current string longer than one year. The Golden Gophers will have to find someone other than Gable Steveson to extend that streak in 2023;
• Of the 199 multi-time champions in tournament history, 11 have won titles for Penn State in the past decade;
• Penn State scored the second-most match points at this year’s tournament (294). Michigan was first with 297;
• With Max Dean’s win at 197 pounds, he joined his brother, Gabe, a two-time champ for Cornell, as the third brother tandem to capture titles in the last 20 years. The Deans joined Ben and Max Askren and Mark and Chris Perry;
• Penn State’s Bravo-Young, Lee and Brooks tied three other wrestlers — Michigan’s Nick Suriano, Northwestern’s Ryan Deakin and Steveson — for a tournament-high 23 team points scored;
• A team from the Big Ten has won the last 15 national championships. Oklahoma State was the last non-Big Ten school to win a title, in 2006;
• This year’s 10 NCAA champions hailed from 10 different states: Arizona (RBY), Colorado (Deakin), Indiana (Lee), Maryland (Brooks), Michigan (Dean), Minnesota (Steveson), New Jersey (Suriano), New York (Yanni Diakomihalis from Cornell), Pennsylvania (Starocci) and Wisconsin (Keegan O’Toole from Missouri).
