There’s no doubt a quarterback should carry his offense.
In Penn State’s case, Christian Hackenberg did that in 2014. On his shoulders, on his back, on his mind.
In 2015, that list may have to include his feet. If only a few more times a game than he did last season.
Although on further review, when you take away the sacks, Hackenberg was a very effective runner in 2014– even going 11-of-12 in short-yardage situations.
When you subtract the 44 times he was Hackensacked last season, the Nittany Lions’ quarterback ran the ball 49 times, averaging a nearly-symmetrical 3.9 yards per run on 3.8 carries per game.
(How do I know this? In a flurry of wintertime activity, I spent more than a few hours hand-charting all 948 of Penn State’s offensive plays from 2014.)
As it stands and how Hack moves, Penn State head coach James Franklin thinks his junior quarterback – who recently ran a 4.74 40, which would’ve ranked him as the No. 8 QB at the recent NFL Combine — is more than capable of doing more with his feet.
“He sees himself as a Tom Brady, traditional pro-style quarterback,” Franklin told Jon Solomon of CBSSports.com a few weeks ago. “But I think if he wanted to, he has the ability to be what people characterize as a dual-threat quarterback. He doesn’t see himself that way, which is fine. There are times he pulled the ball down last year and made some plays, and I hope he’ll do it three or four times a game next year.”
HERE’S JOHNNY
Franklin’s right. Hackenberg, and almost everyone else, views him as a traditional pocket-passer – much more Johnny Unitas than Johnny Football. That’s a multi-million dollar style and skill set that could get the 6-foot-4, 235-pounder drafted in first round by the NFL, perhaps as soon as next May. But last season, it was man the lifeboats, everyone for himself as the lack of a running game and a porous offensive line resulted in Hackenberg getting sacked so much the final tally set a Penn State-single season record.
Hack mostly took it as a man, but don’t be surprised if he takes off a little more often in 2015. Penn State conditioning guru Dwight Galt has been preparing Hackenberg – who already has 876 pass attempts, 5,932 passing yards and 32 TD passes in only 25 starts at Penn State – for that possibility.
“Hack, he took a pounding as we all know,” Galt said last week. “He had a couple of little bumps and bruises that he plowed through because he is a tough guy. But we’re taking the same approach this year. If injury prevention and shoulder stability were a big priority last year, we feel great with the shoulder stability. Knocking on wood, he’s really improved there. Obviously he’s got some great arm strength.
“The one thing I’m really trying to work with him now is to really continue with his movement stuff — his speed, his agility.”
SNEAKY GOOD
There’s no doubt that Hackenberg is a clutch player. In 2013-14, he led Penn State on 11 last-ditch drives that resulted in a victory in regulation; an overtime-sending score; an overtime-extending touchdown or field goal; or a victory in overtime.
But he actually had some under-the-wire, unappreciated success running the ball in 2014. Especially on sneaks, where success is equal parts savvy, determination and that agility Galt is preaching. Last season, Hackenberg ran for a first down 11 of the 12 times he carried the football in short-yardage situations. Talk about money. He was 6-for-6 on third-and-1; 1-for-1 on third-and-2; 1-for-1 on third-and-3; 3-for-4 on fourth-and-1; and 1-for-1 on fourth-and-3.
His only fail came in the Maryland game, when he scrambled on fourth-and-1 with 23 seconds remaining and Penn State trailing 20-19. It was a dire situation, with the ball on the Penn State 28 and Hackenberg desperately trying to make a play. He fumbled, though, and the Nittany Lions lost – hardly his fault.
So, now that he’s proven to be a short-yardage savant, maybe Hack will go back to diving for a few TDs in 2015. He had four in 2013.
Of Hackenberg’s runs in 2014, a few were designed. Some of them scrambles. Many of them quite successful. Again, not counting sacks, he ran for a net of 191 yards and that per-carry average of 3.9 yards.
Using FootballOutsiders.com’s “Success Rate” formula, 21 of Hackenberg’s 49 carries were successful. That’s 42.9%. A successful run picks up 40% of the yards needed for a conversion on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down. (Penn State running back Akeel Lynch had a success rate of 40.8% in 2014.)
Hack the Runner was clutch in crunch-time. His success rate running the ball in the fourth quarter was a stellar 62.5% (10 of 16) and on fourth down a resounding 80% (4 of 5).
RARELY SEEING RED
Where Hackenberg was not so clutch was in the red zone. Not his fault. The sample size was much too small. Penn State’s offense made 40 trips to the red zone (the opponent’s 20-yard and in) last season. And, after charting all 40 trips using the official play-by-play sheets, I counted a total of four red zone runs by Hackenberg in 2014. That’s four out of 120 red zone plays run. Two were successful (Ohio State 17-yard line, Boston College 15) and two were not (Northwestern 19, Temple 13). Of Hackenberg’s 49 carries, 19 came in the opponents’ end and 30 came in the Penn State end. The field was tilted.
For the Nittany Lions, red zone often meant wildcat time. A couple of things went into that decision-making of Franklin and offensive coordinator John Donovan. They needed to keep Hackenberg healthy, and not running him in the open field on a decidedly more compact space helped meet that objective. Also, Hackenberg wasn’t personally predisposed to run.
In addition, and maybe most importantly, opposing defensive coordinators felt no great compunction to plan on Hackenberg running. That allowed them to load up even more on the Lions’ O-line and running game, which they didn’t respect. Of course, when your quarterback only runs once every 30 plays inside the 20-yard line, why change your scheme to defend it?
That is likely to change, at least somewhat, in 2015. More will be expected of Hackenberg – he’s now The Man and no longer The Kid, in every sense of the words. And there’s always the possibility that redshirt freshman Trace McSorley, much more of a runner, may be inserted into Penn State’s red zone offense on occasion. McSorley is smart, mature and quick, with a sound arm.
It won’t be a piece of cake. Gone are two senior running backs and their 3,765 rushing yards. Gone are two veteran offensive linemen and their 57 starts. Gone is a titan tight end and his 78 receptions and school-record 11 TD grabs.
THE VANDY EXPERIENCE
All the while, there’s this ever-present biuzz that Franklin and Donovan strongly favor dual-threat quarterbacks. And in looking at their Vanderbilt days and numbers, they do – but to only a certain degree. (In fact, it’s not a stretch to think they’d rather have Hack aboard two years from now instead of today.) Factoring out sacks, here are the rushing numbers for Vanderbilt’s quarterbacks the three seasons Franklin and Donovan were in Nashville, followed by Hackenberg’s stats in 2014 at Penn State:
2011 – Vanderbilt, Jordan Rodgers and Larry Smith (27 sacks) – 132 carries, 609 yards, 4.6-yard average, 10.2 carries a game.
2012 – Vanderbilt, Rodgers and Austyn Carta-Samuels (24 sacks) – 72 carries, 277 yards, 3.8-yard average, 5.5 carries a game.
2013 – Vanderbilt, Carta-Samuels and Patton Robinette (33 sacks) – 111 carries, 499 yards, 4.5-yard average, 8.5 carries a game.
2014 – Penn State, Hackenberg (44 sacks) – 49 carries, 191 yards, 3.9-yard average, 3.8 carries a game.
Clearly, Vandy’s QBs ran more often. And in 2011 and 2013, they were more successful at it. Vanderbilt’s 2012 season, when Rodgers had all but five of the QB carries, is statistically very close to Hackenberg’s in 2014. The idea is that the Vanderbilt quarterbacks were more of a threat to run, therefore opening things up for the rest of the offense – be it the passing game or for Zac Stacy, a 3,100-yard career rusher at Vanderbilt. They could do things that Hackenberg can’t – or, at least, wasn’t asked to as much as they were.
MR. RODGERS’ NEIGHBORHOOD
With Rodgers, that’s less of the case. As a 6-1 and 212-pound fifth-year starter, Rodgers – the brother of Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers – had one-and-a-half times as many carries as Hackenberg. Yet Rodgers averaged the same amount of yards per carry. The four games in which Rodgers carried the ball the most – an average of 9.5 carries – Vanderbilt lost. And in the seven games Rodgers played and Vandy won, he averaged 3.7 carries a game, nearly identical to Hackenberg’s numbers. Pocket passing produced wins for the Commodores, although the threat of Rodgers running was very real.
There’s the rub. The threat was real and SEC defenses reacted. The actual results were not all that amazing. No matter. In play-calling, perception is reality.
Comparing Rodgers and Hackenberg provides a bit of context, and helps us look at what Hackenberg has accomplished when juxtapositioned against one of those dual-threats from Vandy. Here are some comparisons (Rodgers missed Vandy’s 58-0 victory over vaunted Presbyterian in 2012, so that game is not included):
Runs over 10 yards – Rodgers had six (10, 15, 15, 15, 19 and 25); Hackenberg had four (10, 12, 17 and 17).
Success Rate – Rodgers, 18 of 67 carries (26.8%); Hackenberg, 21 of 49 carries (42.8%).
Short yardage – Rodgers, successful on 8 of 11 carries (72%) outside of the 5-yard line, but 1 of 7 (14.2%) from the 4-yard line to the goal line; Hackenberg, successful on 11 of 12 carries (91.7%).
Opponents’ territory – Rodgers, successful on 9 of 36 carries (25%); Hackenberg, successful on 8 of 19 carries (42%).
Red zone – Rodgers, 43 trips, 3 successful runs in 14 carries (21.4%); Hackenberg, 40 trips, 2 successful runs in 4 carries (50%).
By now, you’re saying, “But Hack can’t run – he’ll get hurt. And he’s not that good at it.” I’ll give you a shaky maybe to the first premise, but offer a definite no to the second. In 2014, he did run. And at a rate nearly equal – or better – than Rodgers did for Vanderbilt two seasons ago. Besides, it was the sacks that hurt Hack. Literally. And repeatedly. Not the planned runs or scrambles. (I mean, the kid knows how to slide; as a young high schooler, he was a better baseball player than a footballer. Geez, imagine that.)
A BACK-UP PLAN
It’s true that the most important number when it comes to Hackenberg running the ball is zero. As in zero snaps that his back-up has taken in college football. For the third straight year, Hackenberg enters the season with an understudy who has never played a down of college football. (Of course, entering 2012 Hackenberg hadn’t either.)
In his first two seasons at Vandy, Franklin had the luxury of inheriting two veteran quarterbacks age 22 or older. And in 2013, Robinette, the No. 2 quarterback, was a key factor in wins over Georgia and Florida. (Remember, Hackenberg just turned 19 and should have 38 starts under his belt before he turns 20. Rodgers was 24 in 2012, when he was Vanderbilt’s starting quarterback. His QB coach, Ricky Rahne, was only eight years older. At Penn State, Rahne — a star signal-caller at Cornell in the early 2000s — has 15 years on Hack.)
When Hackenberg does tuck it and run, or scrum for a first down, he’s much more effective than most people think. And that very likely includes Hackenberg himself.
Penn State’s success against Boston College in the postseason showed what Hackenberg can do. And that’s in addition to his remarkable passing line of 34 for 50, for 371 yards, with four TD passes and two sacks. (Plus, two lost fumbles. Not good.)
As a rusher, he carried the ball six times in Yankee Stadium. That’s one shy of his season-high, against Rutgers. Four of his carries came inside the BC 30. That’s simply remarkable, given the context. In the first 12 games of the 2014 season, Hackenberg carried the football only eight times inside the opponents’ 30. He did half that in the Pinstripe Bowl. His last three runs against the Golden Eagles were all successful using the “Success Rate” matrix, gaining the necessary chunks of yards – the last two runs coming in crunch time in the fourth quarter.
HEALTHY, WEALTHY AND WISE
The bowl in the House That Jeter Built was not simply a stripe of luck. With a month to rest, Hackenberg was relatively healthy. And with a month to digest what he had seen all season and develop a strong game plan that built upon all of Hackenberg’s talents and an offensive line finally going through college football puberty, Donovan was wise.
Franklin the master motivator likes what he saw, knowing it could make the Nittany Lions wealthier in wins in 2015.
“I think this is going to be a great opportunity for growth now,” Franklin said about Hackenberg, in an interview with PennLive.com while in Harrisburg last month.
“He’s 19 years old. I think we forget that at times. But I wouldn’t trade him for any quarterback in the country.”
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