When it comes to non-conference opponents and cross-over out-of-division games, for the next few years Penn State football is in a class by itself:
The middle-class.
An audit of Big Ten schedules for its 14 members reveals that Penn State stands alone in difficulty over the next half-decade.
The Big Three of the East Division – Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State – should have a tougher time when playing the non-Big Ten schools and West Division foes on their upcoming schedules.
Their roads to the conference title game and a BCS play-off spot are decidedly more challenging than Penn State’s.
And the bottom tier of the East – Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers – will likely have easier sledding than the Nittany Lions when they facing West Division and non-con schools.
We’re not even talking about this week’s addition of Auburn to Penn State’s slate in 2021 and 2022. After all, the Lions vs. Tigers (oh, my!) is still six seasons away. Until then, Penn State must slog its way through a non-conference schedule — influenced by what looked to be foreboding sanctions — that is hardly high brow.
Yes, there’s Pitt four times. And Virginia Tech once, in 2020. These days, you can even count Temple as a non-con game not full of nonsense.
But after that, it’s mostly small potatoes, like Idaho and Buffalo in 2019. (Together, they’ve been 29-66 over the past four seasons.) Plus Kent State twice, as well as Akron, Georgia State, Appalachian State once each. (A combined 90-130 over the past five seasons, but a much-improved 28-23 in 2015.)
There’s a reason for that, of course. Two of them, in fact:
1. Nine Big Ten Conference games, beginning in 2016.
Starting now, each Big Ten team will play nine conference games – all six division foes and three games against teams in the other Big Ten division. In even-numbered years, Penn State will play five home Big Ten games; in odd-numbered years, only four. Non-conferences games, with a few exceptions, must be against Power 5 teams.
Penn State and its athletic director, Sandy Barbour, need seven home games per season to fill the $127 million per year (and growing) coffers of the athletic department. So, in odd-numbered years Barbour must have all three non-conference games take place in Beaver Stadium. The 2017 home slate has just that, with Akron, Pitt and Georgia State.
Overall, other than Pitt and a 2020 date at Virginia Tech, Penn State lacks a big-name non-conference opponent over the next five seasons. Pitt fills the bill of Power 5 foe and intense geographical rival; a nice twofer, for sure, accented by the fact that two of Penn State’s three away games over the next half-decade are all of 139 miles away from Beaver Stadium.
Lest you judge too quickly: It’s important to take into consideration that this was to be the heart of the hurt of the sanctions, digging into Penn State’s on-field abilities. So there was no good reason to load up on good – read: challenging – non-con foes. If the original sanctions had stayed put, Penn State would have been mostly powerless against most Power 5 teams.
As a result, the Nittany Lions are in the running for one of the Big Ten’s worst non-conference schedules over the next five years. Only lower-rung teams like Purdue, Indiana and Illinois have easier non-conference schedules over the next half-decade, as the list below suggests. And there’s a big reason for that: To even have a shot at qualifying for a bowl game, they need to load up on easy foes.
Meanwhile, from 2016-2020 Michigan will be facing the likes of Florida (at Arlington, Texas), Cincinnati, Arkansas (twice), Washington and Virginia Tech. Michigan State is slated to play Notre Dame (twice), BYU (twice), Arizona State (twice) and Miami (Fla.), while Ohio State will play Oklahoma (twice), Oregon State, at Oregon, TCU (twice) and Cincinnati.
Assuming those three have success at home in the Big Ten East, wins in these resume builders will go a long way to helping them earn a coveted playoff spot in the BCS.
2. The Big Ten office handed its better teams in the East tougher cross-division games.
Under the Big Ten’s new scheduling formula, each team is paired with a “rival” in an opposite division and will play that team four times over the next four seasons. Each team will also play two games against two other cross-division rivals from 2016-2019, while facing four other cross-division rivals just once. (See the chart above.)
Penn State’s every-year West rival is Iowa, while the Nittany Lions will face Minnesota twice and Purdue twice over the next four years. PSU will play these four other West teams only once in that time period: Illinois, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Wisconsin. Iowa is resurgent these days, having gone 12-2 in 2015, but the two-game pairings with Minnesota and Purdue let the Lions off easy. Same goes for their single games with a trio of upper-echelon Western teams – the Cornhuskers, Wildcats and Badgers. So much for the Big Ten Penn State bias.
By contrast, from 2016-2019 Michigan has drawn Wisconsin four times, with a pair of games against tough Iowa and Illinois (possibly resurgent under Lovie Smith). Ohio State’s Western slate of Nebraska (four games), Northwestern (two) and Wisconsin (two) may be even tougher. Michigan State doesn’t get off easy, either, with four games against Northwestern, two vs. Wisconsin and two vs. Illinois.
The East division weak sisters get a pass from the league office. Indiana’s four cross-division games are against in-state “rival” Purdue, while from 2016-2019 Maryland is paired four times with Minnesota, and Rutgers faces Illinois four times.
This may not be the NFL, but the word “parity” does come to mind.
2016-2020 BIG TEN NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULES
ILLINOIS
2016 – Murray State, North Carolina, Western Michigan
2017 – Ball State, Western Kentucky, at South Florida
2018 – Kent State, W. Illinois, South Florida
2019 – Akron, at UConn, E. Michigan
2020 – Florida Atlantic, UConn, Bowling Green
INDIANA
2016 – at Florida International, Ball State, Wake Forest
2017 – at Virginia, Florida International, Georgia Southern
2018 – at Florida International, Virginia, Ball State
2019 – at Ball State (Indianapolis), Western Kentucky, UConn
2020 – Western Kentucky, Ball State, at UConn
IOWA
2016 – Miami (Ohio), Iowa State, North Dakota State
2017 – Wyoming, at Iowa State, North Texas
2018 – Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa
2019 – Miami (Ohio), at Iowa State
2020 – Northern Illinois, Iowa State
MARYLAND
2016 – Howard, at Florida International, at Central Florida
2017 – at Texas (Landover, Md.), at Bowling Green, Temple
2018 – Texas, at Bowling Green, Temple
2019 – Bowling Green, at Temple, Syracuse
2020 – Towson, Northern Illinois, at West Virginia
MICHIGAN
2016 – Hawaii, Central Florida, Colorado
2017 – Florida (Arlington, Texas), Cincinnati, Air Force
2018 — Arkansas, SMU
2019 – at Arkansas, Army
2020 – at Washington, Ball State, Virginia Tech
MICHIGAN STATE
2016 – Furman, at Notre Dame, BYU
2017 – Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Notre Dame
2018 – at Arizona State, Central Michigan
2019 – Western Michigan, Arizona State
2020 – at BYU, Miami (Fla.)
MINNESOTA
2016 – Oregon State, Indiana State, Colorado State
2017 – Buffalo, at Oregon State, Middle Tennessee
2018 – New Mexico State, Fresno State, Miami (Ohio)
2019 – South Dakota State, at Fresno State
2020 – New Mexico State, Miami (Ohio)
NEBRASKA
2016 – Fresno State, Wyoming, Oregon
2017 – Arkansas State, at Oregon, Northern Illinois
2018 – Akron, Colorado, Troy
2019 – South Alabama, at Colorado, Northern Illinois
2020 – Cincinnati, Central Michigan
NORTHWESTERN
2016 – Western Michigan, Illinois State, Duke
2017 – Nevada, at Duke, Western Illinois
2018 – Duke, Notre Dame
2019 – at Stanford
2020 – Central Michigan
OHIO STATE
2016 – Bowling Green, Tulsa, at Oklahoma
2017 – Oklahoma, Army, UNLV
2018 – Oregon State, at TCU, Tulane
2019 – Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, TCU
2020 – at Oregon
PENN STATE
2016 – Kent State, at Pitt, Temple
2017 – Akron, Pitt, Georgia State
2018 – Appalachian State, at Pitt, Kent State
2019 – Idaho, Buffalo, Pitt
2020 – at Virginia Tech
2021 – Ball State, Auburn
2022 – at Auburn
2023 – West Virginia
2024 – at West Virginia
2025 – Virginia Tech
PURDUE
2016 – Eastern Kentucky, Cincinnati, Nevada
2017 – Louisville (Indianapolis), Ohio, at Missouri
2018 – Eastern Michigan, Missouri, Boston College
2019 – at Nevada, Vanderbilt
2020 – Notre Dame, at Boston College
RUTGERS
2016 – at Washington, Howard, New Mexico
2017 – Washington, Morgan State, Eastern Michigan
2018 – Texas State, at Kansas, Buffalo
2019 – at Miami (Fla.)
2020 – at UCLA, at Temple
WISCONSIN
2016 – LSU (Green Bay, Wis.), Akron, Georgia State
2017 – Utah State, Florida Atlantic, at BYU
2018 – Western Kentucky, New Mexico, BYU
2019 – at South Florida, Central Michigan, North Texas
2020 – Syracuse
