Even though USC tumbled out of the AP Top 25 after losing at Minnesota in the final 56 seconds on Saturday night and now has two losses, I’m going to count Penn State’s game Saturday against the Trojans in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum as a BIG ROAD GAME.
How big? A win by the Nittany Lions (5-0) over the Trojans (3-2) might be the biggest regular-season road game victory of the 11-year James Franklin Era at Penn State.
Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite. The Penn State contingent will fly to L.A. on Thursday.
It is Penn State’s first road game at one of the four new Big Ten Conference members who migrated from the Pac-12 in time for the 2024 season. And it is the Nittany Lions’ first regular-season football road game in California since 1991.
The Trojans, at 3-2, are essentially ranked No. 26 in this week’s AP poll, based on those teams who are “also receiving votes.” The Trojans began the year ranked No. 23, then rose to as high as No. 11, thanks to wins over LSU at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and at Wisconsin.
Penn State, meanwhile, began the year at No. 8, then stayed there for three weeks, before falling to No. 10, and bouncing back to 9, then 7 and this week to No. 4, trailing only Texas, Ohio State and Oregon. That is near the high-water mark, rankings-wise, for Franklin at Penn State. In 2017, the Nittany Lions were ranked No. 2 for two weeks and were No. 4 for four weeks. In 2021, they were No. 4 for two weeks.
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS
Often, when Franklin is a guest speaker at a coaches clinics, he puts a slide up on the screen that reads:
OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE. He then points out that it can be read one of two ways: “Opportunity is now here” OR “Opportunity is nowhere.”
This week, Franklin & Co, have a massive opportunity in California. They just handily dispatched new Big Ten member UCLA on Saturday, 27-11, in Beaver Stadium. This Saturday, they face the Trojans, a storied program that has had eight Heisman Trophy winners and 11 national championships, and plays in a stadium that has hosted two Summer Olympics (1932, 1984) and will soon host a third (2028).
Penn State has had one Heisman winner and two national titles. It’s doubtful that quarterback Drew Allar or running back Nick Singleton, who sat out the UCLA game but should be healthy for the trip west, will win the Heisman. But — and yes, this is too early — the Nittany Lions have almost as good of a shot as anybody to win a national title. This season. With the 12-team College Football Playoff in its first season, it’s conventional wisdom that a Big Ten and/or SEC team(s) with only two losses will get into the CFP.
Even with Ohio State looming for a (likely) Big Noon game on Nov. 2 at Beaver Stadium, and resurgent Washington — 27-17 winners over Michigan Saturday night; both are now 4-2 — in State College for a White Out the week thereafter, a PSU win over USC in the Coliseum would be the kind of victory that would resonate all the way to noon, Sunday, Dec. 8. That’s when the CFP committee announces its chosen dozen tourney participants. That’s only 57 days from this Saturday.
Penn State’s big road game is not even the biggest game in the conference next Saturday. No. 2 Ohio State (5-0) travels to Eugene to take on No. 3 Oregon (5-0), yet another former Pac-12 member who is new to the Big Ten this season. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, and will be telecast on NBC.
It’s logical to think that, barring a multi-overtime classic, the loser of the Ohio State-Oregon game — Ohio State is a 3.5-point favorite — will drop in the rankings. So, if Penn State beats USC on Saturday, it could jump to No. 3…or higher. No. 1 Texas (5-0) plays No. 18 Oklahoma on Saturday in Dallas in the Red River Shootout. Meanwhile, No. 5 Georgia (4-1) is at unranked Mississippi State, and No. 6 Miami (6-0) is off.
THE PENN STATE-USC SERIES
USC leads the series 6-4, dating back to the 1923 Rose Bowl, won 14-3 by the Trojans. The last time the two teams met was also in the Rose Bowl, on Jan. 2, 2017. In a back-and-forth contest that Penn State led 42-27 in the second half, USC scored 17 straight points in the final quarter to win, 52-49.
In its waning days as an independent in 1990 and ’91, Penn State traveled to California for early-season road games against the Trojans. The Nittany Lions lost to No. 6 USC, 19-14, in 1990, then returned in 1991 and lost again, 21-10, despite entering the game ranked No. 5. In turn, Penn State beat USC both in 1993 (21-20) and in 1994 (38-14) in Beaver Stadium.
FRANKLIN ON THE ROAD AT PSU
Since he arrived at Penn State in 2014, here are some of the key numbers of how Franklin’s teams have performed on the road, specifically in regular season games:
Overall, regular-season road games: 29-20 (.591 winning percentage). Franklin began his tenure at Penn State with a victory on the road — defeating Central Florida, 26-24, in the Croke Park Classic in Dublin, Ireland. That was the longest road trip in Franklin’s time at Penn State, a total of 3,326 miles. (It is 2,576 miles from Beaver Stadium to the Coliseum.)
Conference road games, regular season: 25-18 (.581).
Non-conference road games, regular season: 4-2 (.667). The biggest non-con road wins were the UCF victory and at Auburn in 2022, when Penn State won 41-12. The others: Pitt (2018) and West Virginia (2024). The losses were against Temple in Philadelphia, 27-10, in 2015, and at Pitt, 42-39, in 2016.
Ranked opponents, regular-season road games: 2-14 (.125). The wins came at No. 17 Iowa, 17-12, in 2019, when Penn State was No. 10 and at No. 12 Wisconsin, 16-10, in 2021, when PSU was No. 19.
Ohio State and Michigan, regular-season road games: 1-9 (.100). Penn State’s sole road victory under Franklin against these two Big Ten powerhouses came in the 2020 COVID season, when the Nittany Lions beat an unranked Michigan team, 27-17.
Post-season bowl games: 4-5 (.444).
