The snow has melted and left a damp and frigid field of grass within Beaver Stadium. The air is still, for now, but on Saturday it will be filled with noise and excitement. Penn State is in the College Football Playoff. And where better for the Nittany Lions to make their debut than at home, surrounded by fans in all white, working to harbor enough energy to impact visiting SMU.
Penn State will kick off against the Mustangs at noon EST and the game will be broadcast on Max and TNT. As of Thursday, the Nittany Lions are nine-point favorites. It’s a game that should be won, a game that could begin to define a new era of James Franklin’s coaching career. With a victory, Penn State will face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. A loss will end the season.
The path to a national championship is clear. Four wins and the Nittany Lions will earn their first national title since 1986. But it’s a long road and it won’t be easy. That path begins on Saturday against a Mustang team that has shattered expectations in their first year in the ACC. Here’s a preview of this weekend’s game, filled with players to watch, a key to victory and a prediction.
PREVIEW:
The James Franklin story hardly changed after a 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. He came close, but not close enough to winning a game he wasn’t expected to win. Nonetheless, in a 12-team playoff format, two losses would no longer define his team’s season. Penn State was going dancing.
It’s quite clear now that the Nittany Lions are not quite elite. They’re a great team, able to compete with likely any team in the country, but evidently unable to get the job done against the top five or so. But a great team can survive for quite a while in the new playoff format, if given a favorable path, and Penn State certainly has that.
The pressure for Franklin is high. He needs, at the very least, to beat SMU. The Nittany Lions are a better team with better players who have played and beaten better programs in 2024. What Mustangs’ coach Rhett Lashlee has done with a crop of transfers has been miraculous. But there’s no questioning that Penn State should win this game.
NITTANY LIONS TO WATCH:
QB Drew Allar
With Beau Pribula in the transfer portal, Drew Allar is now the only quarterback on roster who’s attempted a pass at the collegiate level. The pressure is on. Not only for him to execute and lead an explosive attack, but to stay healthy. The backup plan is true freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer and the other alternative is unclear.
Allar will return to the Nittany Lions in 2025, and is expected to enter that season as one of the nation’s most admired offensive players. Now is the chance to prove that those expectations are warranted. He’s flashed throughout this year and made some remarkable plays against the Ducks. It’s time for him to keep that up and lead Penn State on its brightest, whitest stage yet.
DE Abdul Carter
Lashlee called defensive end Abdul Carter the “best defensive player” he’ll have coached against since joining the Mustangs in 2022. It’s hard not to agree with him. Carter is quite possibly the most impactful overall player in this year’s playoffs. He can blitz, he can spy the quarterback and he can drop into coverage. Look out for No. 11 on Saturday.
MUSTANGS TO WATCH:
QB Kevin Jennings
One of the nation’s top quarterbacks under pressure, Kevin Jennings has excelled against defenses with heavy blitz packages, utilizing a deep receiving corps and his versatile running back Brashard Smith, who has 1,573 scrimmage yards and 18 total touchdowns this season.
KEY TO VICTORY:
Feed the beast
The most surefire way for Allar to execute and, in turn, keep up with a persistent SMU offensive attack is to constantly target tight end Tyler Warren. The Mustangs know Warren is the focal point of the offense. Every team in the country knows it. But that hasn’t stopped Warren from derailing defensive gameplans and leading the Nittany Lions to victory this season.
SMU has allowed tight ends to tally 627 receiving yards in 2024, a mark that ranks No. 129 nationally. That’s a great sign for offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who will almost certainly utilize his Mackey Award-winning tight end while he still can.
PREDICTION: Penn State 31, SMU 23.
The Nittany Lions showed something meaningful in the Big Ten Championship. That they can keep up offensively with any team in the country, other than maybe Ohio State. As Oregon scored relentlessly, Penn State found a way to keep itself in the mix until its final drive. With that same scoring pursuit, Franklin should be able to get past the Mustangs with relative ease.
