Penn State fans may want to leave their “Michigan still sucks” shirts in the drawer until the regular season concludes. That’s because the Nittany Lions will need the Wolverines to beat Ohio State next weekend for any hope of a Big Ten Championship appearance. It’s gotten to that point of the year.
Oregon, undefeated at 11-0 and No. 1 in the College Football Playoff ranking, has already clinched a spot in the conference title game. Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana are all one-loss teams, thus putting them in somewhat of a three-way tie to face the Ducks on Dec. 7 in Indianapolis.
The Nittany Lions defeated Minnesota on the same day the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers, making things highly interesting as the final week of the regular season approaches. What does Penn State’s path to the Big Ten Championship look like?
SCENARIO #1
The Hoosiers’ loss to the Buckeyes put Penn State another step forward to clinching a conference championship appearance. If the Nittany Lions beat Maryland in their regular-season finale on Saturday, Oregon beats Washington and Michigan beats Ohio State, that could pave the way for James Franklin’s first Big Ten title game since 2016.
How is this possible if the Buckeyes defeated Penn State? Because a one-loss conference team trumps a two-loss conference team in the criteria the Big Ten uses to dictate its title matchup and the Nittany Lions would likely have a higher cumulative winning percentage of all conference opponents than Indiana.
SCENARIO #2
Without having to calculate any percentages at the season’s end, Penn State’s smoothest path to title game is being the lone one-loss Big Ten team standing. That would mean the Nittany Lions beat the Terrapins, Ohio State loses to the Wolverines and Indiana loses to Purdue.
BETTING SPREADS FOR WEEK 12
Neither scenario appears necessarily probable for Penn State. Nonetheless, there’s a chance. Here are the odds, via DraftKings, for the games the Nittany Lions need to go one way or the other en route to a Big Ten Championship appearance:
Penn State (10-1) and Maryland (4-7): Nittany Lions favored by 24.5 points.
Indiana (10-1) and Purdue (1-10): Hoosiers favored by 27.5 points.
Ohio State (10-1) and Michigan (6-5): Buckeyes favored by 20.5 points.
Oregon (11-0) and Washington (6-5): Ducks favored by 18.5 points.
