Penn State football is hitting that treacherous part of its schedule where it really needs to make hay. And where James Franklin needs to earn his big bucks.
The crux of the schedule. The meat of the order. The big boys. The gut check. They all are the same thing.
Call it The Middle Third.
Northwestern, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State.
Northwestern, struggling at 1-3, is a soft launch to the Middle Third, beginning on Saturday.
After the Mildcats, the Nittany Lions get a bye week, which they will almost assuredly enter at 5-0. (They have been there before; see the chart below.) Then comes, in a mad 15-day season-defining dash, the trip to The Big House Michigan on Oct. 15, the WhiteOut vs. the Gophers on Oct. 22 and Big Noon (“Hello, Urban”) in Beaver Stadium vs. Ohio State on Oct. 29.
All three are 4-0. All are dangerous, the Buckeyes clearly the most. What they did to Wisconsin on national TV on Saturday night belonged more on one of those NBC Dateline shows, where they deconstruct a murder, than ABC, where Fowler and Herbie spent more time lamenting a timeout bump of Brutus than forensic’ing the mugging of Bucky Badger.
The Middle Third is the broad application of what Franklin repeatedly mentions these days — “the middle eight” minutes of football games, which are the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half.
Many games are won in the middle eight. Many seasons are made in The Middle Third.
And, unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, it is not where they typically do their best work, as the following chart shows (2016 and 2020 are anomalies, in so many ways):
2014-2022: PENN STATE STARTS AND FINISHES
| SEASON | START | FINISH | OVERALL |
| 2014 | 4-0 | 3-6 | 7-6 |
| 2015 | 5-1 | 2-5 | 7-6 |
| 2016 | 2-2 | 9-1 | 11-3 |
| 2017 | 7-0 | 4-2 | 11-2 |
| 2018 | 4-0 | 5-4 | 9-4 |
| 2019 | 8-0 | 3-2 | 11-2 |
| 2020 | 0-5 | 4-0 | 4-5 |
| 2021 | 5-0 | 2-6 | 7-6 |
| 2022 | 4-0 | TBD | 4-0 |
| Total | 39-8 | 32-26 | 71-34 |
MR. OCTOBER?
Penn State is 17-10 in October games under Franklin, who surely won’t be mistaken for Reggie Jackson. Throw in its first game in November, and since 2014 Penn State is just 19-16 in The Middle Third. (The Middle Thud, perhaps?)
TBH, the Nittany Lions almost always face the toughest part of their schedule (and ipso facto, the toughest part of the Big Ten) in the middle of the season: Michigan, Ohio State and in some years, Michigan State. Minnesota occasionally rows its boat in there as well.
Come-from-ahead losses to Ohio State and Michigan State in 2017? The Middle Third. Back-to-back losses to the same two teams in 2018? TMT. Losing at Minnesota while the Lions were ranked No. 5 in 2019? TMT. The debacle that derailed Penn State after its 5-0 start in 2021? TMT.
Conversely, Grant Haley’s scoop and score in 2016? The Middle Thrilled.
Which brings us to 2022.
The Nittany Lions have looked, overall, very good — with teasingly long looks at great down South — in their first third, going 4-0 and ranked No. 11 with road victories at Purdue and Auburn, in circumstances that many had believed could result in a loss. Or two. Hence, coupled with the 11-11 of 2020-21, Penn State was not ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 for the first since 2016.
Say what you want right now, but being there in real-time for both contests, I can tell you both games were true challenges. And exemplars that Penn State’s 2022 squad could be something special.
Looking ahead, Penn State’s final third looks tougher as a group now than it did a month ago. But, frankly, not daunting in a TMT way. Indiana is 3-1. Maryland is 3-1. Rutgers is 3-1. Michigan State is struggling at 2-2.
Caveat: There’s enough time for Sparty to go one way or another, so that by the time the regular season-ender on Nov. 26 at Beaver Stadium rolls around, Michigan State could either be meltuckered out or have grown into some tough meltuckers.
COORDINATING THE NEXT STRETCH
I’m high on Franklin’s offensive and defensive coordinators. (Special teams? Not so much.) The combo of Mike Yurcich and Manny Diaz is a really nice comp for the duo of Brent Pry and Joe Moorhead, the primary pair that schemed and motivated Penn State to a 20-3 run in 2016-17 after finding their feet.
Diaz, like Moorhead did for the Nittany Lion offense in 2016, has impacted the speed and the attacking soul of the Nittany Lions’ defense. What made Moorhead so special, among many things, is that he also attached himself to the heart of the Penn State squad. The players’ words, not mine; read them here. If Diaz can impact the Penn State locker room as a whole, as JoeMo did, he will truly be The Manny. It’s a tenuous line, though; Diaz is a former head coach; Franklin is the head coach.
Then there’s Cliff. For all the catcalls that QB Sean Clifford has received— in town, on campus, during games; on Saturday, he was booed lustily after a 1-of-5 stretch that was preceded by an 8-of-8 start — he’s not had a single turnover since that horrendous pick-six at Purdue. And he’s had six touchdown passes and rushing TDs in that time.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE
Franklin has done some real high-end trolling of the media this season. He hints that the O-line is better, but does not say it, for fear it will come back to bite him in the butt — as has been the case for several years now.
And, in nearly every media availability in 2022 — Tuesday midday pressers, Wednesday post-practice scrums, Saturday post-games — Franklin throws in some version of, “And I know you guys will tell me how we’re doing.”
(Uh, yeah. That’s part of the media’s job description.)
Here’s the thing about The Middle Third: When all is said and then played, the TMT will do all the speaking for Franklin and Penn State in 2022 — be it the Middle Thrilled, the Middle Turd or the 2-2 Mid-Between.
