Penn State men’s hockey is effectively a lock for the NCAA Tournament, setting up the Nittany Lions for a third tournament appearance in program history. With four games left to go in the regular season, College Hockey News’ PairWise Probability Matrix gives Penn State a 100% chance of making the field with an 85% chance of making it as an at-large bid and 15% as an automatic qualifier in the instance Penn State would go on to win the Big Ten Tournament, earning an automatic bid.
For the uninitiated, the NCAA Tournament is selected by virtue of the PairWise rankings system which sends the Top 16 teams in those rankings to the postseason [there is no selection committee]. In essence the PairWise is effectively the BCS for college hockey. The only way that not all Top 16 teams make the postseason is if a conference tournament winner – which is granted an automatic bid – was not in those Top 16 rankings, effectively bouncing No. 16, No. 15, Not 14 etc etc out of the postseason.
The PairWise is an algorithmic ranking system determined by a handful of variables including strength of schedule, wins and opponent comparisons. Penn State is ranked No. 10 in the USCHO.com poll which is comprised of human votes.
In the case of Penn State, the Nittany Lions currently sit at No. 5 in the PairWise with a four game home-stand incoming against Big Ten leading Minnesota and last place Wisconsin prior to the start of the Big Ten Tournament. The first round of the conference tournament is a best-of-three series head over the course of three days at the higher seed’s home ice. Similarly the semifinals and finals are single elimination games held on back-to-back weekends at campus sites.
The formalities aside, Penn State knows it will head to Allentown as a regional host yet again on March 24 and 26. This is the third time Penn State has hosted an NCAA Tournament regional but just the second time the Nittany Lions have made the postseason as a host institution. Host schools are automatically placed in their host site during the seeding process if they make the postseason. Penn State will host the Allentown regional for a fourth time in 2025.
Fittingly, a very early bracket prediction by College Hockey News recently opined that Penn State could once again end up in a postseason regional with Denver. The Nittany Lions are 0-2 against the Pioneers in the postseason falling in the regional final in 2017 and then again in the first round in 2018. Penn State hockey would have made the postseason in 2020 if not for the COVID-19 pandemic which saw all NCAA postseason events canceled. The tournament is seeded as a result of multiple conference protections and variables.
Both nights of Penn State’s series this weekend will air on the Big Ten Network. Each at 6:30 eastern.
