INDIANAPOLIS — It’s hard to miss the signs. They’re everywhere throughout the Indianapolis International Airport. The almighty Big Ten Championship has arrived. And for the first time since 2015, it’ll be played between two top-five teams: No. 1 Oregon (12-0) and No. 3 Penn State (11-1). It’s safe to say this game is a big one for Dan Lanning and James Franklin.
The Nittany Lions’ return to Lucas Oil Stadium will kick off at 8 p.m. ET with broadcasting designated to CBS. As of Thursday, the undefeated Ducks are a 3.5-point favorite in a game with an over/under set at 50 points.
While both programs are all but guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff, this is a game with obvious seeding implications. What are they? Are there risks to playing this game? Who are some players to watch? This is all covered in a compressive preview for Penn State’s most difficult test of the season.
PREVIEW:
Reality check. The Big Ten has eliminated divisions and grown to 18 teams. The College Football Playoff has expanded to a 12-team format. The recruiting landscape is heavily dictated by compensation. All of this is true. What’s also true is that, boiled down, there remains nothing that matters more in this sport and in this conference than winning. That has not changed.
As competitive programs across the country have fallen short against opponents they were expected to beat, Oregon and the Nittany Lions are two teams who have made it through the regular season, more or less, unscathed. There’s but one defining factor between the resumes of both teams. Penn State lost to Ohio State, a team that the Ducks defeated.
Across the statistical board, the programs are about even. They score a lot of points and don’t allow many, force a lot of turnovers and don’t allow many. And they both, primarily, revolve around the offensive and defensive lines. There’s a reason Oregon has found success against a novel Big Ten schedule. Lanning has built that team for a physical conference.
A win would, unequivocally, be Franklin’s best with the Nittany Lions. The Ducks are the nation’s only remaining undefeated team. If they fell, Penn State would most likely earn the playoff’s No. 1 seed and the first-round bye that comes with it. But that brings up a major question. Would they even want it?
With a loss, it’s possible the Nittany Lions could retain the No. 5 seed, setting up a favorable path to the semifinal by, if the season ended today, playing Arizona State and then Boise State. With a win, their quarterfinal matchup could be much trickier. Oregon is currently projected to face the winner of Ohio State and Tennessee in that round.
But, for the sake of living in the moment, forget any of that matters. There’s a championship on the line. It’s a game that can propel Penn State forward in the first year of an expanded conference and provide an edge in an ultra-competitive era where money reigns supreme. The moment has come, once again, for Franklin to prove he’s elite before it’s too late.
NITTANY LIONS TO WATCH:
DE Abdul Carter
He’s the best defensive player in the best defensive conference in college football. What more is there to say about Abdul Carter? He’s everything the Nittany Lions wanted him to be and more in his switch from linebacker to defensive end. The Ducks, like the Nittany Lions, possess one of the nation’s top offensive lines. They’ve only allowed 12 sacks this season.
Carter, who has 10 sacks on the year and leads the Big Ten with 19.5 tackles for loss, is under the microscope in this one. He will be tested, likely with constant double-teams. This, in turn, could open up opportunities for others on the defensive line. Everything revolves around Carter on defense and, if he can get to the quarterback consistently, Oregon could have trouble.
TE Tyler Warren
Penn State must put the ball in the hands of its best players. Tyler Warren, a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, is, without a doubt, the team’s most consistent offensive threat. He can catch, run, throw, snap. You name it, Warren will do it. And what makes him so dangerous, is that he’s played the same versatile role all season and no team has found a way to stop him.
Franklin and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki made the mistake of opting away from Warren on a final goal-line stand against the Buckeyes. By this point, they’ve likely learned their lesson. Warren is easily the top priority for the Ducks’ defense. And that’s OK. He’s been every opponent’s top priority. Feed the beast and good things happen.
DUCKS TO WATCH:
QB Dillon Gabriel
Franklin said it feels like Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has been playing for 10 years. And it’s close: This is his sixth season of college football. Throughout his career, whether at UCF or Oklahoma, Gabriel has always been a poised and reliable threat. But never has he put it together quite like he has over this season.
He’s more experienced than most players in the country, let alone quarterbacks, and has a great supporting cast of weapons that make the Ducks’ offense one of the nation’s trickiest to gameplan for. The Nittany Lions have faced the likes of Will Howard and Miller Moss in 2024, but Gabriel is just a completely different challenge.
DE Matayo Uiagalelei
He’s only a sophomore, but Matayo Uiagalelei is already defining himself as one of the country’s most dynamic pass rushers. Focus too heavily on him? Good luck stopping Jordan Burch on the other side. In a game that will be won or lost in the trenches, Penn State’s offensive line, already down starter due to injury, will be tested like never before this year.
KEY TO VICTORY:
Hard-nose, physical Big Ten football
Stick to the script. This is the Big Ten, where teams battle it out in gloomy, frigid weather. This is the conference that has been built on physicality, on mammoth linemen, on pounding the rock. Oregon wants to own the conference in its first year around? The Nittany Lions need to make them earn it, Big Ten style.
The Ducks have proved to be the one outlier in a group of four former Pac-12 teams who have mostly struggled to transition to this new style of play. Keep them under 25 points with a sturdy defensive effort and this game could get interesting.
PREDICTION: Oregon 24, Penn State 23.
This game will come down to it. Oregon is beatable. Penn State is beatable. Oregon is good enough to win the national championship. Penn State is also, potentially, good enough to win the national championship. It’s an even matchup of teams looking to finally break through on the national stage and define themselves as winners in the most competitive age of college football.
Franklin and Lanning, two innovative and boisterous personalities, are the difference-makers in this game. Both have built their programs to success in very different ways. Both have made gutsy decisions to win games this season. But in a game that could come down to the final seconds, which coach is most likely to have the winning game plan?
Well, that would have to be Lanning, the nation’s only coach who hasn’t lost this season.
