You know the disclaimer, which usually runs with at the of financial services commercials: “Remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.”
But that’s not only true when making an investment.
It could also pertain when attempting to determine the outcome of a high-stakes college football game between two high-ranked teams – like, say, No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa (both with 5-0 records) on Saturday afternoon in Kinnick Stadium.
Conversely, among those who bet on sporting events for a living, horse racing aficionados rate Past Performance information – often called PPs, or The Form – as the most important tool for handicapping a horse race.
You can decide if past performance matters.
My goal here is to look at the PP of the Penn State Football Braintrust — head coach James Franklin and offensive signal-caller Mike Yurcich, new to the staff in 2021 – in big games. Those would be contests where one or both teams are ranked in the Top 25.
We’ll also look at their Form in Big Games — the ones where one or both teams are ranked in the Top 10, like this weekend in Iowa City. (For consistency’s sake, the rankings I use in this compilation are all based on the weekly Associated Press polls.)
For Franklin, we need to recognize that his three years at Vanderbilt were so long ago (2011-13) — and in decidedly different circumstances – that lumping all of Vandy with PSU would not provide a true picture of his Top 25 acumen. In his first two seasons at Penn State, again under unique and challenging circumstances, Franklin’s teams did not do well against Top 25 teams.
To cut to the chase: In Franklin’s eight seasons at Penn State, his teams are 11-14 against Top 25 opponents and 2-8 against Top 10 opponents.
But, recently, he is on a bit of a roll.
In 2021, Penn State has won both if its games against ranked teams – defeating No. 12 Wisconsin (all rankings are at the time of the game) on the road, 16-10, and beating No. 22 Auburn, 28-20, at home.
In Penn State’s last nine games against Top 25 foes, dating back to the 2019 season with Sean Clifford as the starting QB, Franklin is 6-3. That includes the Nittany Lions’ 0-2 record against Top 10 teams in that time (losses to No. 2 Ohio State in 2019 and to No. 3 Ohio State in 2020).
Yurcich, who is with his fourth school in four seasons – thinking about all that packing and unpacking – is 23-17 against Top 25 as an offensive coordinator and 9-9 and against Top 10 teams. Pretty good.
(Franklin’s predecessor, Bill O’Brien, was 3-3 vs. Top 25 opponents while at Penn State in 2012-13.)
Here’s a look at their PP’s against Top 10 and Top 25 opponents:
JAMES FRANKLIN
vs. Top 25 Opponents — 11-14 at Penn State, 1-7 at Vanderbilt, 12-21 overall. 6-3 since 2019, 11-10 since 2016. 2-8 in true road games against Top 25 opponents, 5-10 counting road, bowl and neutral site games.
vs. Top 10 Opponents — 2-8 at Penn State, 0-5 at Vanderbilt, 2-13 overall. Wins came in 2016: a 24-21 upset of No. 2 Ohio State at home, and a win over No. 6 Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis.
vs. Top 5 Opponents — 1-5 at Penn State, 0-3 at Vanderbilt, 1-8 overall. The win? That 2016 upset of Ohio State in a Beaver Stadium Whiteout.
Top 10 (Penn State) vs. Top 10 (opponent) — 1-4. Win: Eighth-ranked Penn State defeated No. 6 Wisconsin in that 2016 Big Ten title game. Losses: 2017 Rose Bowl (No. 5 Penn State, No. 9 USC), and three times against Ohio State — 2017 (No. 2 Penn State, No. 6 OSU), 2018 (No. 9 PSU, No. 4 OSU) and 2019 (No. 9 PSU, No. 2 OSU).
Starting QB’s vs. Top 25 Opponents — Christian Hackenberg — 0-4 vs. Top 25 opponents; Trace McSorley — 5-7 vs. Top 25 opponents; Sean Clifford — 6-3 vs. Top 25 opponents.
BONUS: Franklin vs. Iowa — 4-1, with road wins at Kinnick in 2017 (21-19) and 2019 (17-12). The only loss came in 2020, 41-21 in Beaver Stadium.
MIKE YURCICH
Yurcich has been Penn State’s offensive coordinator for five games. Prior to that, he spent the 2020 season as OC at the University of Texas; the 0219 season as OC at Ohio State; and the 2013-2018 seasons at Oklahoma State as OC. In all, that’s nearly nine seasons, during which time he coached in 40 games against Top 25 foes. His record:
vs. Top 25 Opponents — 23-17, with school-by-school records of 2-0 at Penn State, 1-1 at Texas, 5-1 at Texas and 15-15 at Oklahoma State. In Yurcich’s last 15 games against Top 25 teams, which equates to one year at each of the four schools, he is a stellar 12-3.
vs. Top 10 Opponents — 9-9 overall, with school-by-school records of 1-0 at Texas, 2-1 at Ohio State and 6-8 at Oklahoma State. He’s 4-2 in his last six games against Top 10 teams.
vs. Top 5 Opponents — 1-4 overall, with a loss to Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinals when he was at Ohio State, and losses to Oklahoma (twice) and Florida State at Oklahoma State. While Yurcich was at Oklahoma State, the Cowboys beat No. 4 Baylor.
