If the 2020 U.S. Census figures released last week were to be believed, State College Borough’s population decreased in the last 10 years and Centre County’s growth rate was much lower than has been estimated.
Those numbers seem to defy reality in an area long thought to be a growth center in Pennsylvania — and borough and county officials said this week they are looking into their options to get a more accurate count.
According to the census data, State College had 40,051 residents in 2020, 1,533 fewer than in 2010 and 1,659 fewer than the Census Bureau’s 2019 estimate.
“Based on construction records and many other measures, the population shouldn’t have been less than the 42,000-plus from 2010, but rather boosted perhaps 3,000 to 5,000, if not more,” State College Borough Councilman Evan Myers said earlier this week. “Similar undercounts are evident in surrounding townships, especially Ferguson Township.”
Centre County, according to the census, grew by 2.7% in the last decade, from 153,990 to 158,172. The county’s 2019 estimate was 162,385, which would have been a 5.5% increase. Centre was still among the 23 Pennsylvania counties (out of 67) that grew in population over the last 10 years.
Low response rates were widespread across the country as the census was conducted amid the COVID-19 pandemic, hampering the typical door-to-door efforts that take place to count those who haven’t responded. Despite calls to extend the counting, the Trump administration refused to extend the deadline beyond Oct. 15, 2020.
For State College, the issue was compounded by the pandemic’s impacts on Penn State students, who were largely absent from campus and town during the counting efforts. While the university could submit bulk data for students who would have been living in campus residence halls, they only account for about a quarter of University Park students.
The university and borough Complete Count Committees urged students to respond to the census using their college address, as they typically would. But, Borough Manager Tom Fountaine said this week, it became apparent the count was coming up short of what it should be.
“We knew at the time and had reported on a number of occasions that there were some substantial undercounts in key precincts in State College as well as in the surrounding townships,” Fountaine said. “We were expecting the final numbers to be lower than are realistic and certainly than expected.”
An accurate count is crucial for federal funding to municipalities and counties. Census data is key in determining federal funding for everything from road projects and public transportation to education and social service programs to emergency services and more.
“…[T]he undercount means less federal dollars, perhaps significantly so, and therefore a greater burden on taxpayers,” Myers said.
State College and Centre County are looking into the process for a recount of suspected undercounted areas.
“We’ve been in touch with the Census Bureau at this point and we’ll have more to report on this in the coming weeks and months,” Fountaine said.
Centre County Board of Commissioners Chair Michael Pipe said the county also has reached out to U.S. Sen. Bob Casey’s office for guidance.
“We’ve reached out to Senator Casey’s office to get information about options available to statistical catchment areas that may have been undercounted and we’re going to see how we can proceed from there,” Pipe said.
“We want to make sure we’ve got all the information before we go in any direction but it is something we’re aware of in terms of being undercounted by several thousand.”
The first step is to submit a request for a review of results, along with supporting evidence, to the Census Count Question Resolution (CQR) program. If deemed eligible, a governmental unit is typically responsible for paying for the recount.
Fountaine said in talking with officials from municipalities around the country, the cost of a recount has ranged from $150,000 to $300,000.
According to the Census Bureau, the entire process, including reporting of final results, can take up to two years.
Myers also expressed concern about the count’s impact on how the borough and county will be represented in Congress and the state General Assembly, since census data is used to draw congressional and legislative districts every 10 years.
“The undercount, let’s say by 10 percent, means each voter in State College their vote is worth 10 percent less because the legislative districts will be drawn based on the faulty data,” Myers said. “Essentially one out of every 10 votes in legislative districts won’t count compared to other more accurately census counted districts.”
But while a recount could help with future federal funding, it wouldn’t change the numbers used for apportionment and redistricting.
“The 2020 Census CQR is not a mechanism to revise the counts sent to the Office of the President … which are used to apportion the U.S. House of Representatives,” the bureau’s CQR operational plan states. “The Census Bureau does not make any changes to the apportionment, redistricting, or official 2020 Census data products.
“If these CQR cases result in a change, the Census Bureau delivers new, officially revised, counts to the affected [governmental units(GUs)]. GUs can use the updated data for future programs that require official 2020 Census data. These results are also used to calculate subsequent population estimates for each community.”
2020 Census Population for Centre County and Centre Region Municipalities
| 2020 Census | 2010 Census | Percent Change | 2019 Estimate | |
| Centre County | 158,172 | 153,990 | 2.7% | 162,385 |
| State College Borough | 40,501 | 42,034 | -3.8% | 42,160 |
| College Township | 10,762 | 9,521 | 13.0% | 10,055 |
| Ferguson Township | 19,009 | 17,690 | 7.5% | 19,462 |
| Harris Township | 5,913 | 4,873 | 21.3% | 6,040 |
| Patton Township | 15,650 | 15,311 | 2.2% | 15,805 |
