If you have lived in Centre County over the last ten years, it is easy to see that the area is growing in many ways ― from the large high rises that keep popping up all around downtown State College to the often called “renaissance of Bellefonte” that has seen the revitalization of the old Victorian town.
Along North Atherton Street, new development seems to be happening constantly and, on the south side of the Centre Region, new homes keep popping up.
Penn Staters who graduated a decade ago might find it a little difficult to navigate a campus that is constantly growing when they come up for ten-year reunions.
New highway projects like the one that was just completed on Route 322 and another that just began on the Interstate 80 and 99 intersections offer proof that this is an area that is seeing a lot of growth.
Yes, Centre County is changing and growing, but what do the numbers say?
The 2020 census data is trickling in and with it comes a few surprises. One of those is that Centre County’s growth rate is much slower than what was expected. But that may be misleading, because the count took place during the pandemic, which may have led to an undercounting of Penn State students who should have been added to Centre County numbers. This has some officials looking for a recount.
According to the data from the Census Bureau, State College had 40,051 residents in 2020, 1,533 fewer than in 2010 and 1,659 fewer than the Census Bureau’s 2019 estimate. But, looking around, this just doesn’t make sense, some leaders say.
“Based on construction records and many other measures, the population shouldn’t have been less than the 42,000-plus from 2010 but rather boosted perhaps 3,000 to 5,000, if not more,” State College Borough Councilman Evan Myers said when that data came out in August. “Similar undercounts are evident in surrounding townships, especially Ferguson Township.”
While State College did see a decrease in population during the count, all other municipalities in the Centre Region saw population growth over the past decade — College Township (13 percent increase), Ferguson Township (7.5 percent increase), Harris Township (21.3 percent increase), and Patton Township (2.2 percent increase). It was drastically less than the expected growth for each municipality.
This undercount can be seen in Centre County as a whole, which saw an overall growth rate of 2.7 percent over the last decade, from 153,990 to 158,172. This is much lower than the 2019 estimate of 162,328, which was generated by the Census Bureau looking at growth trends. That would have amounted to a 5.5 percent increase in population in the county as a whole.
“We think we are four or five thousand under where the 2018, 2019, and even going back to the 2011, estimates were at. Here was a trajectory that was a lot higher. We knew we had a new state correctional institute here, we knew we had tremendous progress in real estate. So, we knew that we were going to be seeing a higher number,” says Centre County Board Chairman Michael Pipe.
Like so many things over the past year and a half, COVID-19 is to blame, as the pandemic hampered door-to-door efforts that take place to count those who haven’t responded, causing low response rates across the county. Despite calls to extend the counting, the Trump administration refused to extend the deadline beyond Oct. 15, 2020.
Furthermore, with many Penn State students spending the pandemic away from campus and town, they were not in the area to be counted. The university was able to submit bulk data for students who had been living in campus residence halls, but this only accounts for about a quarter of University Park students.
“Obviously the pandemic was the main reason. Without the pandemic, we are going to see numbers well over 162,000 here in Centre County,” said Pipe. “We are not alone. Communities where universities are at across the country are seeing lower numbers coming in.”
This low count could have a big impact on federal funding for the county and municipalities, as the numbers are used to determine money for things like road projects, public transportation, education, social service programs, emergency services, and more. Without this funding, it could put a greater burden on local taxpayers.
“This affects the millions of dollars the county was expecting over the next decade from the federal government and the state government,” says Pipe.
State College Borough and Centre County government are in the process of reaching out to the Census Bureau for a recount. This could be a long and expensive process, taking up to two years, with a potential cost between $150,000 to $300,000, based on information from other municipalities that have undergone recounts, according to Sam Fountaine, State College Borough manager.
But that money may be worth the efforts to get the numbers right.
Pipe expects to receive guidance from the commerce department sometime this fall, which will help determine the next steps in the process for a potential recanvas.
“It is a multiyear process. So, the estimate is that we would get the guidance later this year, and there would be a lot of work that would need to be done in 2022 and 2023. So, we wouldn’t get new numbers until 2023 and beyond. We, at the county, appreciate the fact that the number is going to be the number for any calculations of revenue that we are going to be getting for the next few fiscal years, until we get this solved,” says Pipe. He added that the county and municipalities from the Centre Region are certain the numbers do not reflect an accurate representation, and the cost of the recount needs to be weighed against the money they could lose in funding without it.
“If you are going to be missing out on hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars in revenue the next decade, let’s put in tens of thousands now to do a recanvas and get better numbers,” says Pipe.
Much, he says, will be determined by the criteria set forth by the Census Bureau for a recount.
While the county was working to get the count right in 2020, Pipe says, the message they were telling people was, “For every person that we don’t get is tens of thousands of dollars that we would miss out on over that period. So, when you are looking at 5,000 people … I think it is safe to say hundreds of thousand if not millions of dollars.”
Even with the discrepancy due to the Penn State students’ absence, Centre County is one of the few counties in the heart of the state that experienced growth over the past decade. Surrounding counties like Clinton (-4.6 percent), Clearfield (-1.3 percent), Blair (-3.4 percent), and Huntington (-4.0 percent) all have a shrinking population over the past ten years. Union County has had the most population loss, going from 44,947 people in 2010 to 42,681 in 2020, a five percent decrease.
In Centre County most of population growth was seen in the Centre Region surrounding State College Borough, but Pipe says the county will use the data to help support sustainable housing opportunities in other parts of the county.
“We did see a decline in population in some of the more rural communities, so as we look for other housing opportunities, we want to be very mindful of that and help out anyway that we can,” says Pipe.
As the count stands, much can be learned from the numbers as a potential recount awaits. For one thing Centre County is getting more diverse.
The Diversity Index measures the probability that two people chosen at random will be from a different race and ethnicity groups. In 2010 Centre County had a Diversity Index of 22.2 percent. In 2020 that jumped to 31.9 percent, which is still far lower than the statewide index number of 44 percent but significantly higher that surrounding counties such as Clinton (12.9 percent), Blair (15.1 percent), and Mifflin (11.6 percent).
Breaking it down, in 2010, 89.4 percent of Centre County identified as white alone, not Hispanic or Latino. In 2020 that number fell to 82 percent. Black or African-American respondents made up 3.5 percent of the residents in Centre County, while Native American and Alaska native is 0.1 percent and Asian is 7.2 percent.
The census also showed a 53.1 percent change is those who reported being of Hispanic origin in Centre County, growing from 3,690 in 2021 to 5,651 in 2020.
